Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
23%
-0.5ppVol $701Closes —
Category
Tech/AI
Product launches, regulation, and adoption forecasts in probability terms.
372 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 179 matching tech/ai markets.
Showing 109-144 of 179 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.05ppVol $693Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
10%
Vol $682Closes 30 Sept 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
13%
Vol $630Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
10%
-1.0ppVol $627Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Project Helix release by May 31, 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+3.0ppVol $612Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowStale data
Will Walmart acquire TikTok?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $608Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Nicki Minaj release a new song in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
89%
-0.5ppVol $582Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-6.0ppVol $569Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Anthropic acquired before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
2%
Vol $483Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Travis Scott release an album in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +10.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
+10.0ppVol $475Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
+6.5ppVol $457Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +11.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
17%
+11.4ppVol $453Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
40%
+0.5ppVol $408Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.8pp).
Stable consensus
5%
+0.8ppVol $312Closes 31 Dec 2027
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
34%
+1.5ppVol $298Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $260Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
HighFresh
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Included because probability moved -2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
8%
-2.5ppVol $236Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Beyoncé release a new song in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +12.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
73%
+12.5ppVol $224Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
2%
-0.1ppVol $209Closes 28 Feb 2027
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Sabrina Carpenter release an album in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
47%
-0.5ppVol $208Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Project Helix release by June 30, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
1%
+0.2ppVol $173Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will NewJeans release a song in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+7.0ppVol $149Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
HighFresh
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Included because probability moved +5.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
+5.5ppVol $137Closes 31 Dec 2027
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Beyoncé release an album in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
69%
-2.5ppVol $133Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
12%
+0.6ppVol $125Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
5%
Vol $125Closes —
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
8%
Vol $116Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Billie Eilish release an album in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
19%
+5.0ppVol $94Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
7%
+0.5ppVol $94Closes 30 Sept 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
61%
-2.0ppVol $94Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
Will Taylor Swift release an album in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
55%
-1.5ppVol $90Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
18%
Vol $88Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
MediumFresh
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
14%
Vol $61Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowFresh
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.6pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
64%
+6.6ppVol $55Closes 31 Dec 2026
Tech/AI
LowStale data
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $48Closes —
Avg 24h move 2.7pp68 markets with notable movementCombined activity $5.4M
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