Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?
0%
Limited history-0.1pp
24h activity $10KCloses —
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Current implied probability
22%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
22%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $3K and 24h activity is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31, 2026 | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $60K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 21.5% | +1.0pp | $3K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 2.4% | +0.5pp | $29K | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
2%