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Current implied probability
2%Recent probability movement (down 0.3pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
2%
24h Change
-0.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
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Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.3pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of GTA 6 on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of its release in the United States. If the price differs between the Microsoft and PlayStation stores, this market will resolve according to the lower price. This market will resolve based on the lowest price version that includes the full standard game with no DLC, etc. If GTA 6 is not released or release is otherwise delayed beyond February 28, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the Microsoft Store/PlayStation Store, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 28 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC
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