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Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+41.9pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAY-Z | 89.0% | -0.5pp | $2K | active |
| Frank Ocean | 38.5% | +3.5pp | $207 | active |
| Nicki Minaj | 79.6% | — | $98 | active |
| A$AP Rocky | 100.0% | +0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Kendrick Lamar | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lana Del Rey | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Charli XCX | 100.0% | +2.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Kanye West | 100.0% | -4.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Drake | 100.0% | +0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| SZA | 100.0% | +38.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lil Uzi Vert | 100.0% | +17.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 100.0% | +0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Beyoncé | 100.0% | +41.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Taylor Swift | 100.0% | +1.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| BTS | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.