Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?
24%
Limited history-3.0pp
24h activity $1KCloses 2 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 31% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
31%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
31%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 4.5pp, from 36% to 31%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC.
36%
12 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
36%
12 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
36%
12 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
36%
12 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
31%
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
31%
16 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Lamar | 23.5% | -3.0pp | $1K | active |
| Eminem | 15.5% | -1.5pp | $788 | active |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 15.5% | +1.5pp | $604 | active |
| Travis Scott | 34.5% | -2.5pp | $309 | active |
| Lana Del Rey | 35.0% | -4.0pp | $265 | active |
| Justin Bieber | 22.5% | -11.5pp | $254 | active |
| Playboi Carti | 27.5% | -2.0pp | $328 | active |
| Lil Uzi Vert | 54.0% | +1.5pp | $239 | active |
| Frank Ocean | 11.5% | -1.0pp | $216 | active |
| Beyoncé | 3.6% | -0.8pp | $200 | active |
| Jay Z | 26.0% | -0.5pp | $651 | active |
| Peso Pluma | 9.5% | -8.0pp | $256 | active |
| Taylor Swift | 30.5% | — | $2K | active |
| Rihanna | 20.5% | -1.5pp | $428 | active |
| Bad Bunny | 15.5% | -4.5pp | $194 | active |
| Billie Eilish | 6.0% | — | $499 | active |
| The Weekend | 23.5% | +7.5pp | $551 | active |
| A$AP Rocky | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Kanye West | 100.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Drake | 100.0% | +0.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Future | 100.0% | +3.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Luke Combs | 100.0% | +0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Nettspend | 100.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Harry Styles | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 2 Jan 2027, 07:59 UTC