Sport
HighFresh
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved +2.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
36%
+2.1ppVol $2.2MCloses 20 Jul 2026
Category
Sport
Tournament and season outcome probability movement across major leagues.
2,957 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 248 matching sport markets.
Showing 1-36 of 248 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Sport
HighFresh
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved -3.7pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
41%
-3.7ppVol $221KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved +6.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
46%
+6.0ppVol $133KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Michael Harris II win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
+5.0ppVol $131KCloses 19 Dec 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
Included because probability moved -1.8pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
42%
-1.8ppVol $114KCloses 31 Oct 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
41%
+1.0ppVol $64KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
Included because probability moved +5.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
60%
+5.0ppVol $35KCloses 12 Jul 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Joey Bosa play for Carolina Panthers in 2026-27?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
+1.0ppVol $30KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Sport
MediumFresh
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
55%
Vol $29KCloses 20 Jul 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.3pp.
High activity
52%
+0.3ppVol $27KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
40%
-3.5ppVol $24KCloses 20 Aug 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+6.5ppVol $21KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Sport
LowFresh
Over $180B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
57%
+0.5ppVol $21KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Sport
LowFresh
Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
+1.0ppVol $14KCloses 19 Dec 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Included because probability moved +6.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
47%
+6.0ppVol $13KCloses 20 Aug 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
35%
-0.5ppVol $13KCloses 28 Sept 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Low-confidence: move is +3.1pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
57%
+3.1ppVol $13KCloses 12 Nov 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
45%
-0.5ppVol $12KCloses 13 Sept 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
55%
Vol $10KCloses 11 Oct 2026
Sport
LowFresh
New Pro Football CBA agreed before the 2027-28 season?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
36%
-4.5ppVol $9KCloses 1 Sept 2027
Sport
LowFresh
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Low-confidence: move is +3.4pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+3.4ppVol $8KCloses 13 Nov 2026
Sport
HighFresh
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Included because probability moved +2.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
59%
+2.4ppVol $8KCloses 6 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next?
Low-confidence: move is +38.9pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
+38.9ppVol $7KCloses 1 Sept 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
65%
-0.5ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
New MLB CBA by Dec. 1?
Low-confidence: move is +32.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
+32.8ppVol $6KCloses 1 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will George Pickens play for Dallas Cowboys in 2026-27?
Low-confidence: move is +3.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
48%
+3.0ppVol $6KCloses 1 Sept 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will the Chicago Bears leave Illinois by Dec. 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
44%
Vol $6KCloses 1 Jan 2027
Sport
LowFresh
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
-3.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowStale data
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
57%
+18.5ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
50%
Vol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Low-confidence: move is +38.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
47%
-38.5ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
56%
+8.0ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Aljaž Ivačič win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?
Low-confidence: move is +2.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
+2.8ppVol $4KCloses 22 Nov 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award?
Low-confidence: move is +15.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
-15.5ppVol $4KCloses 19 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
40%
-9.0ppVol $3KCloses 19 Dec 2026
Sport
LowFresh
Will Arman Tsarukyan become UFC champion in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +20.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
+20.5ppVol $3KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 3.0pp463 markets with notable movementCombined activity $101.6M
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