Politics
HighFresh
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?
Included because probability moved +2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
47%
+2.0ppVol $93Closes 3 Jan 2027
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 211 matching politics markets.
Showing 145-180 of 211 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
LowFresh
Will Aly Richards win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +15.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
-15.5ppVol $91Closes 11 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
36%
-0.5ppVol $88Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
40%
+1.0ppVol $84Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
44%
Vol $80Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
35%
+0.5ppVol $77Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
-8.0ppVol $76Closes 8 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
51%
+6.0ppVol $74Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +7.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
63%
+7.5ppVol $73Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
44%
Vol $73Closes —
Politics
HighFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Included because probability moved +7.4pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
36%
+7.4ppVol $72Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
37%
Vol $68Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
64%
+0.5ppVol $65Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Arkansas in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +15.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
64%
+15.0ppVol $64Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
48%
-1.0ppVol $61Closes 23 Apr 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Minnesota in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
56%
Vol $60Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the July decision?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
46%
Vol $55Closes 7 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Montana in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
41%
-0.5ppVol $54Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
58%
Vol $51Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?
Low-confidence: move is +11.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
35%
-11.5ppVol $47Closes 1 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+1.0ppVol $45Closes 1 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
47%
+1.0ppVol $44Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
Low-confidence: move is +4.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
58%
+4.0ppVol $41Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
42%
-0.5ppVol $41Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Indiana in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
46%
-6.0ppVol $40Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
52%
Vol $38Closes —
Politics
MediumFresh
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
52%
+0.5ppVol $38Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
36%
Vol $37Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
50%
-1.0ppVol $37Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +9.1pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
59%
+9.1ppVol $36Closes 11 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +11.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
43%
+11.5ppVol $35Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
48%
-1.0ppVol $33Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Maine in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
52%
+9.0ppVol $32Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia enter Borova by September 30?
Low-confidence: move is +8.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
37%
+8.5ppVol $32Closes 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
46%
-0.5ppVol $30Closes —
Politics
LowFresh
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
42%
-2.5ppVol $29Closes 11 Aug 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp385 markets with notable movementCombined activity $2.2M
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