EAEventAlpha
Politics

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

44%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTCStable consensus

Market activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.

Signal: Medium

Current

44%

24h Change

-1.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

6

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
43.5%
No implied probability
56.5%
Liquidity
$7K
Market Activity
$18K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 01:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:39 UTC

AI brief may be stale. Current market metrics are shown above.

What this market asks

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

Current market read

AI summary is unavailable because stored summary data is older than the latest market metrics. Current market metrics are shown above.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.

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