Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
58%
Limited history+6.5pp
24h activity $7KCloses 3 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
42%Recent probability movement (down 8.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
42%
24h Change
-8.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 8.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 57.5% | +6.5pp | $42K | active |
| Dan Sullivan | 41.5% | -8.0pp | $47K | active |
| Ann Diener | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Richard Grayson | 0.1% | — | $19K | active |
| Dustin Darden | 0.1% | — | $20K | active |
Probability sum: 99.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
AI brief generated from stored market data at 18 Aug 2026, 07:53 UTC
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
This market is focused on whether Dan Sullivan will win the Alaska Senate race in 2026. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the market will resolve based on the winner as reported by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. It will resolve once all three specified news sources call the race for the same candidate. If they do not agree, the market will resolve based on official certification of the results.
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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