Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +5.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
31%
-5.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 325-360 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
HighFresh
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.3pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
58%
-3.3ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
2%
+0.05ppVol $2KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-13 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
94%
-0.5ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the CA-33 House seat?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
7%
+1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
6%
-0.3ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
5%
+0.5ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.1ppVol $2KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.05ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the KY-02 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
93%
-0.5ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
93%
-0.5ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-06 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
93%
-0.5ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
31%
Vol $2KCloses 20 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
45%
Vol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Included because probability moved +1.9pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
20%
+1.9ppVol $2KCloses 20 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.7pp).
Stable consensus
14%
+0.7ppVol $2KCloses —
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the IL-08 House seat?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
8%
+1.0ppVol $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.2pp).
Stable consensus
99%
+0.2ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.6pp).
Stable consensus
3%
-0.6ppVol $2KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-08 House seat?
Included because probability moved +2.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
14%
+2.5ppVol $1KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
8%
+1.0ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
95%
+0.1ppVol $1KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Republican Party win the CA-50 House seat?
Included because probability moved +1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
8%
+1.0ppVol $1KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +35.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
39%
+35.8ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
Included because probability moved +12.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
56%
+12.5ppVol $1KCloses 3 Jan 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Brian Shortsleeve win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
-2.0ppVol $1KCloses 1 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-32 House seat?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
93%
-1.0ppVol $1KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $1KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
2026 Balance of Power: Other
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $1KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
50%
Vol $1KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
4%
-0.1ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.05ppVol $1KCloses 10 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-2.0ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
7%
+0.05ppVol $1KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $1KCloses 13 Sept 2026
Avg 24h move 1.6pp368 markets with notable movementCombined activity $42.0M
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