Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $23KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (down 0.2pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
-0.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 0.3% | — | $52K | active |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $41K | active |
| Belarus | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $44K | active |
| Russia | 0.3% | — | $43K | active |
| Ukraine | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $40K | active |
| Qatar / UAE | 0.7% | — | $45K | active |
| Kazakhstan | 0.9% | +0.5pp | $30K | active |
| US | 0.8% | -0.2pp | $30K | active |
| Turkey | 1.0% | -0.1pp | $35K | active |
| Italy / Vatican | 0.1% | — | $35K | active |
| India | 0.1% | — | $35K | active |
| Hungary | 0.3% | — | $32K | active |
| Switzerland | 2.5% | — | $28K | active |
| No meeting before 2027 | 92.5% | — | $28K | active |
Probability sum: 100.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
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