Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $5KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 93% probability for this outcome, a +0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
93%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
93%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 1.6pp, from 92% to 90%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC.
95%
20 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
95%
20 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
96%
20 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
96%
20 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
90%
22 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
93%
24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan | 0.1% | — | $100K | active |
| Belarus | 0.1% | — | $61K | active |
| China | 0.8% | -0.5pp | $75K | active |
| Qatar / UAE | 1.5% | +0.8pp | $66K | active |
| Turkey | 0.5% | +0.3pp | $74K | active |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.4% | +0.1pp | $65K | active |
| Russia | 0.3% | +0.05pp | $55K | active |
| US | 3.6% | — | $55K | active |
| No meeting before 2027 | 92.8% | +0.1pp | $60K | active |
| Hungary | 0.1% | — | $48K | active |
| Switzerland | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $58K | active |
| Ukraine | 0.1% | — | $66K | active |
| Italy / Vatican | 0.2% | — | $53K | active |
| India | 0.1% | — | $66K | active |
Probability sum: 101.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC