Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
97%
Limited history-0.05pp
24h activity $13KCloses 4 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
19 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
0%
19 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
0%
19 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
0%
19 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
0%
22 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
0%
23 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Steyer | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $131K | active |
| Xavier Becerra | 96.5% | -0.05pp | $192K | active |
| Steve Hilton | 3.1% | +0.1pp | $202K | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $378K | active |
| Chad Bianco | 0.1% | — | $110K | active |
| Kyle Langford | 0.1% | — | $370K | active |
| Rick Caruso | 0.1% | — | $399K | active |
| Nicole Shanahan | 0.1% | — | $355K | active |
| Katie Porter | 0.1% | — | $328K | active |
| Betty Yee | 0.1% | — | $384K | active |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | 0.1% | — | $334K | active |
| Stephen Cloobeck | 0.1% | — | $353K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 0.1% | — | $327K | active |
| Toni Atkins | 0.1% | — | $377K | active |
| Michael Younger | 0.1% | — | $370K | active |
| Eric Swalwell | 0.1% | — | $338K | active |
| Eleni Kounalakis | 0.1% | — | $383K | active |
| Tony Thurmond | 0.1% | — | $337K | active |
| Daniel Mercuri | 0.1% | — | $361K | active |
| Matt Mahan | 0.1% | — | $144K | active |
| Butch Ware | 0.1% | — | $379K | active |
| Elaine Culotti | 0.1% | — | $387K | active |
| Leo Zacky | 0.1% | — | $386K | active |
Probability sum: 100.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC