Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
16%
Limited history
24h activity $582Closes 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 80% probability for this outcome, a +0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
80%Recent probability movement (up 0.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
80%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 3.0pp, from 77% to 80%, between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.
76%
19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
76%
19 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
77%
19 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
80%
19 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
82%
19 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
80%
23 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 79.5% | +0.5pp | $27K | active |
| No meeting by December 31 | 15.5% | — | $36K | active |
| United States | 1.6% | +0.9pp | $37K | active |
| Russia | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $40K | active |
| Turkey | 0.2% | — | $45K | active |
| Belarus | 0.1% | — | $29K | active |
| Switzerland | 0.1% | — | $51K | active |
| Australia | 0.1% | — | $47K | active |
| South Korea | 0.1% | — | $40K | active |
| Ukraine | 0.1% | — | $45K | active |
| Japan | 0.1% | — | $52K | active |
| Other | 0.6% | — | $39K | active |
| Gulf country | 0.9% | — | $45K | active |
| Other EU country | 0.1% | — | $43K | active |
| Finland | 0.1% | — | $46K | active |
Probability sum: 99.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC