Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
78%
Limited history-1.5pp
24h activity $3KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
21 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
0%
21 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
0%
21 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
0%
21 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
0%
22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
0%
25 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 78.0% | -1.5pp | $25K | active |
| Russia | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $44K | active |
| No meeting by December 31 | 17.0% | +1.0pp | $35K | active |
| United States | 1.3% | -0.3pp | $43K | active |
| Switzerland | 0.1% | — | $51K | active |
| Other | 1.1% | — | $39K | active |
| Gulf country | 0.8% | -0.05pp | $45K | active |
| Turkey | 0.2% | — | $44K | active |
| Belarus | 0.1% | — | $29K | active |
| Other EU country | 0.1% | — | $43K | active |
| Finland | 0.1% | — | $51K | active |
| Australia | 0.1% | — | $47K | active |
| South Korea | 0.1% | — | $40K | active |
| Ukraine | 0.1% | — | $46K | active |
| Japan | 0.1% | — | $51K | active |
Probability sum: 99.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC