Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
0%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $2KCloses 3 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
49%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
49%
24h Change
-4.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $6K and 24h activity is $815. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Crum | 0.4% | +0.3pp | $13K | active |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 8.3% | +4.0pp | $19K | active |
| Treg Taylor | 12.6% | +4.0pp | $18K | active |
| Edna DeVries | 0.1% | — | $16K | active |
| Bill Walker | 2.5% | +2.3pp | $19K | active |
| Bernadette Wilson | 25.5% | -0.5pp | $2K | active |
| Matt Heilala | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 0.3% | -0.3pp | $20K | active |
| Tom Begich | 49.0% | -4.0pp | $6K | active |
| Click Bishop | 2.6% | -1.9pp | $12K | active |
| David Bronson | 3.9% | -2.5pp | $18K | active |
| Shelley Hughes | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| James Parkin | 0.3% | — | $17K | active |
| Bruce Walden | 0.1% | — | $17K | active |
| Mary Peltola | 0.3% | -0.2pp | $21K | active |
| Matt Claman | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Hank Kroll | 0.1% | — | $16K | active |
| Lesil McGuire | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Jessica Faircloth | 0.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Gregg Brelsford | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 0.1% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 107.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
0%
8%
13%
0%
3%