Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will the Miami Heat make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
61%
Limited history-3.5pp
24h activity $459Closes 16 May 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 31% probability for this outcome, a +2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
31%Recent probability movement (up 2.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
31%
24h Change
+2.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
19
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 4.0pp, from 35% to 31%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC.
29%
4 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC
29%
4 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC
29%
4 Nov 2026, 08:00 UTC
29%
4 Nov 2026, 09:00 UTC
31%
4 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC
31%
5 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 30.5% | +2.0pp | $15K | active |
| Miami Heat | 60.5% | -3.5pp | $15K | active |
| Detroit Pistons | 92.5% | -0.5pp | $17K | active |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 48.0% | -2.5pp | $15K | active |
| Dallas Mavericks | 42.5% | -2.0pp | $15K | active |
| Phoenix Suns | 29.5% | -2.0pp | $16K | active |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 80.2% | -6.7pp | $15K | active |
| Charlotte Hornets | 38.5% | — | $2K | active |
| Golden State Warriors | 49.5% | +5.0pp | $2K | active |
| Atlanta Hawks | 64.5% | +4.5pp | $15K | active |
| New York Knicks | 85.0% | +0.5pp | $15K | active |
| Utah Jazz | 16.0% | -0.5pp | $17K | active |
| Indiana Pacers | 42.0% | +0.5pp | $4K | active |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 77.5% | +0.5pp | $3K | active |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 83.5% | -0.5pp | $17K | active |
| Houston Rockets | 92.5% | -0.5pp | $18K | active |
| Chicago Bulls | 5.5% | -0.5pp | $14K | active |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 14.0% | — | $15K | active |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 4.8% | +0.6pp | $15K | active |
| Sacramento Kings | 3.4% | -0.7pp | $14K | active |
| LA Clippers | 12.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Toronto Raptors | 85.0% | +1.5pp | $16K | active |
| Boston Celtics | 92.0% | — | $17K | active |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 81.5% | — | $16K | active |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 88.0% | — | $19K | active |
| Brooklyn Nets | 3.3% | +0.3pp | $14K | active |
| Orlando Magic | 44.5% | -2.5pp | $15K | active |
| Denver Nuggets | 79.0% | — | $16K | active |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 84.0% | — | $15K | active |
| San Antonio Spurs | 96.5% | — | $17K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a spot in the 2027 NBA Playoffs per the rules of the NBA. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2027 NBA Playoffs (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". Reaching the Play-In Tournament does not, by itself, qualify a team for the Playoffs and will not resolve this market to "Yes." A team must win its way through the Play-In into the 7-seed or 8-seed to qualify. Losing in the Play-In Tournament (or any associated tiebreaker) resolves this market to "No." If the 2027 NBA Playoffs are cancelled, postponed to begin after May 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the full 16-team playoff field has not been officially confirmed by the NBA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA and/or the clinching team; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 16 May 2027, 03:59 UTC