Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
27%
Limited history+9.9pp
24h activity $2KCloses 4 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 9% probability for this outcome, a -2.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
9%Recent probability movement (down 2.6pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
9%
24h Change
-2.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 3.6pp, from 11% to 7%, between 06:00 and 07:00 UTC.
14%
12 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
13%
12 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
14%
12 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
10%
12 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
7%
16 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
9%
16 Oct 2026, 12:24 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 205-209 | 27.1% | +9.9pp | $35K | active |
| 195-199 | 9.5% | -6.0pp | $29K | active |
| 210-214 | 5.6% | -3.0pp | $31K | active |
| Below 190 | 24.0% | +0.5pp | $35K | active |
| 200-204 | 8.7% | -2.6pp | $30K | active |
| 190-194 | 10.0% | -1.5pp | $26K | active |
| 215-219 | 5.9% | -0.7pp | $24K | active |
| 230+ | 1.4% | -0.1pp | $27K | active |
| 225-229 | 1.9% | -0.8pp | $22K | active |
| 220-224 | 2.2% | -1.5pp | $27K | active |
Probability sum: 96.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC