Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?
23%
Limited history+12.0pp
24h activity $7KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 2% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
2%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
+0.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.1pp from 2% to 2%, gradually rather than in one jump.
2%
13 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
2%
13 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
2%
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
1%
14 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
2%
14 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
2%
18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.6% | 23.0% | +12.0pp | $8K | active |
| Below 4.5% | 6.0% | +0.5pp | $23K | active |
| Below 4.7% | 26.0% | +5.5pp | $5K | active |
| Below 4.4% | 5.5% | — | $17K | active |
| Below 4.3% | 3.1% | -0.3pp | $10K | active |
| Below 3.8% | 2.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Below 3.9% | 2.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Below 3.5% | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $3K | active |
| Below 1.0% | 1.4% | — | $1K | active |
| Below 3.7% | 3.1% | +1.8pp | $1K | active |
| Below 4.1% | 3.0% | -0.1pp | $687 | active |
| Below 3.6% | 1.4% | -0.2pp | $2K | active |
| Below 3.0% | 1.4% | — | $4K | active |
| Below 4.2% | 2.5% | +0.05pp | $3K | active |
| Below 2.0% | 1.7% | — | $4K | active |
| Below 4.0% | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC