Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
37%
Limited history
Loading the latest market intelligence…
This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
45%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
5
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
37%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristi Noem | 36.8% | +2.6pp | $4K | active |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 35.0% | -2.5pp | $4K | active |
| Kash Patel | 48.0% | -0.5pp | $5K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 11.5% | +1.5pp | $8K | active |
| Lee Zeldin | 25.5% | — | $4K | active |
| Howard Lutnick | 27.5% | -0.5pp | $9K |
Current implied probability
45%Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: Low35%
48%
26%
12%
28%
| active |
| Pete Hegseth | 24.0% | — | $6K | active |
| Dan Scavino | 5.0% | — | $69 | active |
| Susie Wiles | 24.0% | — | $4K | active |
| John Ratcliffe | 24.0% | -3.5pp | $240 | active |
| Russell Vought | 48.0% | -0.5pp | $61 | active |
| Scott Bessent | 12.0% | -3.0pp | $5K | active |
| David Sacks | 44.8% | +2.0pp | $261 | active |
| Markwayne Mullin | 45.0% | — | $39 | active |
| Tom Homan | 16.5% | -5.5pp | $181 | active |
| Stephen Miller | 18.5% | -3.0pp | $4K | active |
| Karoline Leavitt | 24.5% | +1.0pp | $3K | active |
| Dan Bongino | 100.0% | +15.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Pam Bondi | 100.0% | -1.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 100.0% | +40.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 100.0% | +16.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.