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Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
100%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 100.0% | +40.9pp | $6.2M | resolved |
| Argentina | 0.1% | -40.9pp | $8.7M | resolved |
| Peru | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| Egypt | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Morocco | 0.0% | -2.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| USA | 0.0% | -3.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Mexico | 0.0% | -3.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Norway | 0.0% | -5.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Switzerland | 0.0% | -1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| France | 0.0% | -39.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Belgium | 0.0% | -2.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cape Verde | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ivory Coast | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| England | 0.0% | -22.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Croatia | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Portugal | 0.0% | -5.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| South Korea | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Paraguay | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Colombia | 0.0% | -3.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Canada | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ecuador | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Congo DR | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Japan | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Algeria | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ghana | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Australia | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Austria | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Brazil | 0.0% | -6.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Germany | 0.0% | -3.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Senegal | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Uruguay | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Netherlands | 0.0% | -5.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Sweden | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Scotland | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Iran | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Turkiye | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Uzbekistan | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Czechia | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| New Zealand | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| South Africa | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Qatar | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Curaçao | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Tunisia | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Haiti | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jordan | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Iraq | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Panama | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Italy | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.