Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
39%
Limited history-23.0pp
24h activity $550Closes 16 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 58% probability for this outcome, a +25.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
58%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
58%
24h Change
+25.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 19.0pp, from 29% to 48%, between 19:00 and 20:00 UTC.
27%
23 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
27%
23 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
27%
23 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
29%
23 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
48%
23 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
58%
27 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 25.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $124 and 24h activity is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 58.0% | +25.0pp | $124 | active |
| Kyle Schwarber | 39.0% | -23.0pp | $170 | active |
| Matt Olson | 0.1% | -0.2pp | $588 | active |
| Pete Alonso | 0.7% | -0.3pp | $512 | active |
| Munetaka Murakami | 0.1% | — | $3K | active |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.3% | — | $2K | active |
| Aaron Judge | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Mike Trout | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Juan Soto | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| CJ Abrams | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| James Wood | 0.1% | — | $868 | active |
| Junior Caminero | 0.2% | -0.3pp | $486 | active |
| Ben Rice | 0.1% | -0.2pp | $1K | active |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0.1% | — | $641 | active |
| Nick Kurtz | 0.1% | — | $700 | active |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.1% | — | $739 | active |
| Shea Langeliers | 0.1% | — | $828 | active |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.1% | — | $824 | active |
| Sal Stewart | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.1% | — | $872 | active |
| Jordan Walker | 0.1% | — | $920 | active |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Rafael Devers | 0.1% | — | $663 | active |
| Manny Machado | 0.1% | — | $732 | active |
| George Springer | 0.1% | — | $976 | active |
| Hunter Goodman | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
Probability sum: 99.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC