Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
39%
Limited history+6.0pp
24h activity $978Closes 11 Oct 2026
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Current implied probability
13%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
13%
24h Change
-0.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is $40. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 39.0% | +6.0pp | $1K | active |
| Yordan Alvarez | 27.6% | -3.3pp | $2K | active |
| Matt Olson | 12.9% | -0.2pp | $2K | active |
| Mike Trout | 0.3% | — | $2K | active |
| Brandon Lowe | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| CJ Abrams | 0.1% | -0.2pp | $1K | active |
| Juan Soto | 0.4% | — | $3K | active |
| Munetaka Murakami | 2.0% | +0.5pp | $2K | active |
| James Wood | 0.9% | — | $2K | active |
| Junior Caminero | 15.8% | — | $2K | active |
| Ben Rice | 6.4% | +0.7pp | $2K | active |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.3% | — | $2K | active |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Shohei Ohtani | 0.3% | — | $2K | active |
| Sal Stewart | 0.3% | — | $2K | active |
| Rafael Devers | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5% | — | $2K | active |
| Jordan Walker | 0.2% | — | $2K | active |
| Pete Alonso | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Aaron Judge | 0.2% | -0.05pp | $2K | active |
| Nick Kurtz | 0.1% | -0.5pp | $2K | active |
| Shea Langeliers | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Manny Machado | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| George Springer | 0.2% | -0.1pp | $1K | active |
Probability sum: 108.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
39%
28%
0%
0%
0%
0%