Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?
8%
Limited history+2.0pp
24h activity $8KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
5%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
9
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.1pp from 5% to 5%, gradually rather than in one jump.
5%
10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
5%
10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
5%
10 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
5%
10 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
5%
10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
5%
11 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $26K and 24h activity is $255. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia | 7.5% | +2.0pp | $33K | active |
| Qatar | 4.2% | +1.6pp | $29K | active |
| Kuwait | 26.3% | +22.6pp | $10K | active |
| Saudi Arabia | 5.2% | -0.5pp | $26K | active |
| Syria | 3.5% | -0.9pp | $25K | active |
| Iran | 2.2% | -0.3pp | $29K | active |
| North Korea | 2.9% | -0.4pp | $32K | active |
| Bangladesh | 1.3% | — | $33K | active |
| Indonesia | 3.5% | -0.3pp | $33K | active |
| Afghanistan | 2.8% | — | $30K | active |
| Cuba | 3.4% | — | $43K | active |
| Iraq | 4.3% | +0.05pp | $30K | active |
| Malaysia | 2.5% | -0.1pp | $33K | active |
| Pakistan | 4.5% | — | $27K | active |
| Lebanon | 8.0% | — | $28K | awaiting resolution |
| Venezuela | 14.0% | — | $24K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC