Tech/AI
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026?
2%
Limited history+0.1pp
Lifetime volume $174KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 17% probability for this outcome, a -13.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
17%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
17%
24h Change
-13.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 8.0pp, from 30% to 22%, between 13:00 and 14:00 UTC.
25%
20 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
25%
21 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
25%
21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
25%
21 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
22%
24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
17%
25 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 13.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $7K and 24h activity is $3K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 16.5% | -13.0pp | $7K | active |
| October 31, 2026 | 2.1% | +0.1pp | $908 | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC