Tech/AI
MediumMarket data current
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
65%
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
59%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
4
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
65%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 65.0% | +25.5pp | $2K | active |
| October 31, 2026 | 59.0% | — | $32 | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Current implied probability
59%Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: Low