Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
58%
Limited history+37.0pp
24h activity $3KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 46% probability for this outcome, a +39.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
46%Recent probability movement (up 39.0pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
46%
24h Change
+39.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 72.0pp, from 7% to 79%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC.
7%
15 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
7%
15 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
7%
15 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
7%
15 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
79%
19 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
46%
19 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 39.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2026 | 45.5% | +39.0pp | $3K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 57.5% | +37.0pp | $3K | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC