Tech/AI
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
13%
Limited history-1.5pp
24h activity $5KCloses —
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 50% probability for this outcome, a -2.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
50%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
50%
24h Change
-2.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 12.5% | -1.5pp | $6K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.8% | — | $44K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 50.0% | -2.0pp | $1K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 50.0% | -2.0pp | $361 | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jun 2027, 23:55 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
13%
1%
50%