Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?
2%
Limited history-34.6pp
24h activity $10KCloses 8 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -1.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
-1.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.4pp, from 3% to 0%, between 06:00 and 07:00 UTC.
3%
3 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC
3%
3 Nov 2026, 15:05 UTC
3%
3 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
3%
3 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC
0%
7 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC
0%
7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.4pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $13K and 24h activity is $456. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National 0-5% | 1.9% | -34.6pp | $12K | active |
| Labour 0-5% | 98.5% | +41.0pp | $13K | active |
| Labour 5-10% | 0.1% | -5.5pp | $11K | active |
| Labour 15%+ | 0.1% | -0.3pp | $5K | active |
| National 10%+ | 0.1% | -1.1pp | $13K | active |
| National 5-10% | 0.1% | -1.3pp | $5K | active |
| Labour 10-15% | 0.1% | -1.4pp | $13K | active |
| Another Party Wins | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $5K | active |
Probability sum: 100.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC