Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
7%
Limited history+0.5pp
24h activity $521Closes 18 Apr 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 94% probability for this outcome, a +7.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
94%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
94%
24h Change
+7.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest stored-history interval: rose 5.5pp, from 87% to 92%, between 23:00 and 00:00 UTC.
85%
23 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
86%
23 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
86%
23 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
87%
23 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
92%
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
94%
27 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 7.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $11K and 24h activity is $439. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Knafo | 7.0% | +0.5pp | $11K | active |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 93.5% | +7.0pp | $11K | active |
| Bruno Retailleau | 57.0% | -6.5pp | $1K | active |
| Teddy Riner | 4.5% | +3.4pp | $13K | active |
| Gabriel Attal | 27.5% | -0.5pp | $686 | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 78.5% | -1.5pp | $9K | active |
| François Hollande | 42.0% | — | $2K | active |
| Édouard Philippe | 86.0% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 96.2% | +0.3pp | $15K | active |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 62.5% | — | $966 | active |
| David Lisnard | 64.5% | — | $3K | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 6.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 64.0% | -6.0pp | $294 | active |
| Marine Le Pen | 91.5% | — | $18K | active |
| Jordan Bardella | 7.8% | +0.6pp | $14K | active |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3.3% | +0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 31.0% | — | $4K | active |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 11.5% | -1.0pp | $15K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 27.0% | — | $3K | active |
| Karim Bouamrane | 3.9% | +0.3pp | $11K | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 7.2% | -0.1pp | $12K | active |
| François Asselineau | 11.0% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 3.5% | +0.2pp | $12K | active |
| Bally Bagayoko | 4.6% | — | $11K | active |
| Xavier Bertrand | 15.0% | — | $11K | active |
| Juan Branco | 13.0% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Jérôme Guedj | 5.5% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 2.0% | — | $9K | active |
| François Bayrou | 5.0% | -0.05pp | $11K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 11.2% | — | $12K | active |
| Fabien Roussel | 83.0% | -1.0pp | $11K | active |
| Carole Delga | 5.0% | — | $12K | active |
| Philippe de Villiers | 4.3% | — | $11K | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 4.7% | -0.1pp | $13K | active |
| Jean Castex | 4.3% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 3.9% | — | $12K | active |
| Michel Barnier | 6.2% | — | $12K | active |
| Ségolène Royal | 4.4% | +0.05pp | $12K | active |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 7.5% | — | $11K | active |
| François Ruffin | 26.5% | +0.5pp | $610 | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 6.9% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Delphine Batho | 9.6% | +0.4pp | $12K | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 1.4% | — | $9K | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 5.1% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 3.9% | — | $12K | active |
| Manuel Valls | 4.4% | — | $11K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Apr 2027, 23:59 UTC