Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
83%
Limited history+2.5pp
24h activity $804Closes 17 Apr 2027
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Current implied probability
40%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
40%
24h Change
+1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $16K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édouard Philippe | 83.0% | +2.5pp | $11K | active |
| Jordan Bardella | 8.2% | -5.2pp | $11K | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 3.9% | -2.8pp | $10K | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 55.0% | -2.5pp | $2K | active |
| Marine Le Pen | 88.0% | +1.0pp | $10K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 26.0% | +1.0pp | $3K | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 32.0% | +2.5pp | $4K | active |
| Bruno Retailleau | 75.0% | — | $1K | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 4.5% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 8.5% | +1.5pp | $11K | active |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 56.5% | — | $679 | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 12.0% | -0.5pp | $9K | active |
| Fabien Roussel | 86.0% | +4.5pp | $763 | active |
| Juan Branco | 11.5% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| David Lisnard | 55.5% | -0.5pp | $1K | active |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3.2% | -0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Sarah Knafo | 39.5% | +1.5pp | $16K | active |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 9.5% | — | $15K | active |
| François Hollande | 31.0% | — | $3K | active |
| Gabriel Attal | 32.5% | +1.5pp | $765 | active |
| François Asselineau | 12.5% | -0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 95.1% | +0.3pp | $12K | active |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 50.5% | -1.5pp | $1K | active |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 86.5% | -2.0pp | $11K | active |
| Bally Bagayoko | 3.0% | -0.6pp | $10K | active |
| François Bayrou | 5.9% | — | $10K | active |
| Xavier Bertrand | 13.0% | — | $10K | active |
| Jérôme Guedj | 10.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 18.0% | -2.1pp | $339 | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 8.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Karim Bouamrane | 7.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Philippe de Villiers | 7.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Carole Delga | 3.4% | — | $9K | active |
| Jean Castex | 3.7% | — | $9K | active |
| Michel Barnier | 2.1% | — | $9K | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 2.6% | -0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Ségolène Royal | 6.5% | — | $10K | active |
| François Ruffin | 34.5% | +0.5pp | $462 | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 3.3% | -0.1pp | $9K | active |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 8.8% | +0.9pp | $1K | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 2.3% | — | $9K | active |
| Manuel Valls | 6.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Delphine Batho | 2.6% | — | $9K | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 3.1% | +0.05pp | $9K | active |
| Teddy Riner | 3.5% | — | $10K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 17 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
83%
8%
4%
55%
88%
26%