Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
65%
Limited history+14.8pp
24h activity $11KCloses 4 Oct 2026
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Current implied probability
2%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
2%
24h Change
-2.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $23K and 24h activity is $169. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleitinho Azevedo | 65.4% | +14.8pp | $55K | active |
| Mateus Simões | 5.3% | -7.5pp | $34K | active |
| Flávio Roscoe | 7.9% | +1.6pp | $26K | active |
| Patrus Ananias | 6.7% | -1.8pp | $27K | active |
| Alexandre Kalil | 9.4% | -1.1pp | $23K | active |
| Luís Eduardo Falcão | 1.8% | -2.5pp | $23K | active |
| Gleidson Azevedo | 0.3% | -7.6pp | $22K | active |
| Vittorio Medioli | 0.1% | -0.6pp | $19K | active |
| Aécio Neves | 0.1% | — | $37K | active |
| Nikolas Ferreira | 0.1% | — | $32K | active |
| Tadeu Leite | 0.1% | — | $33K | active |
| Alexandre Silveira | 0.1% | — | $32K | active |
| Rodrigo Pacheco | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $33K | active |
| Gabriel Azevedo | 1.0% | -0.1pp | $23K | active |
| Benoni Mendes | 1.0% | -0.2pp | $30K | active |
| Marcelo Aro | 0.3% | -0.4pp | $27K | active |
| Euclydes Pettersen | 0.7% | -0.1pp | $25K | active |
Probability sum: 101.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The Minas Gerais gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
65%
5%
8%
7%
9%
0%