Politics

Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.1%
No implied probability: 99.8%
Liquidity: $2.0M
Lifetime volume: $2.4M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 16 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Gavin Newsom	16.6%	+3.8pp	$447K	active
Mark Cuban	0.3%	+0.2pp	$1.8M	active
Hunter Biden	0.5%	+0.05pp	$1.2M	active
John Fetterman	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Michelle Obama	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Ruben Gallego	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Jon Ossoff	16.1%	-0.6pp	$348K	active
Kamala Harris	8.2%	-0.05pp	$334K	active
Josh Shapiro	6.3%	+0.3pp	$285K	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	18.4%	-0.7pp	$375K	active
Jared Polis	0.1%	+0.05pp	$936K	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.5%	—	$443K	active
Graham Platner	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Cory Booker	0.6%	—	$1.5M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.1%	+0.05pp	$833K	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.1%	-0.1pp	$364K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
George Clooney	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
MrBeast	0.1%	—	$2.6M	active
Liz Cheney	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
James Talarico	2.4%	—	$236K	active
Ro Khanna	1.4%	-0.2pp	$373K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Mark Kelly	3.3%	—	$333K	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.6%	-0.05pp	$675K	active
Bernie Sanders	0.3%	—	$898K	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.7%	—	$194K	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Gina Raimondo	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Andy Beshear	2.5%	-0.1pp	$544K	active
Chris Murphy	0.5%	-0.05pp	$1.8M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	—	$2.6M	active
Hillary Clinton	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Roy Cooper	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Barack Obama	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Jon Stewart	0.1%	-0.05pp	$304K	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.5%	—	$781K	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Wes Moore	1.8%	—	$350K	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$443K	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active

Probability sum: 93.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC