Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
0%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
95
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Sanders | 0.7% | — | $909K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 8.2% | -0.5pp | $322K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.2% | -0.1pp | $385K | active |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.7% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.8% | -0.7pp | $323K | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $817K |
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
8%
5%
1%
14%
0%
| active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.3% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.8% | — | $716K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.5% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Wes Moore | 1.1% | — | $659K | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 0.9% | — | $535K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.3% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.3% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Andy Beshear | 2.4% | — | $502K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.0% | -0.1pp | $369K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.3% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.6% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 19.6% | -0.1pp | $392K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 0.3% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Jon Stewart | 2.3% | — | $308K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.3% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.6% | — | $1.8M | active |
| MrBeast | 0.3% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 15.8% | — | $285K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 0.7% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.3% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Barack Obama | 0.3% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.3% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Graham Platner | 0.3% | — | $2.3M | active |
| John Fetterman | 0.3% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Hunter Biden | 0.6% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $911K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.4% | — | $746K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.9% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Mark Kelly | 2.1% | — | $421K | active |
| George Clooney | 0.3% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.3% | — | $688K | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $755K | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $629K | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.5% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Ro Khanna | 2.0% | -0.1pp | $232K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1.6% | -0.1pp | $228K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.5% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1% | — | $884K | active |
| Chris Murphy | 0.6% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.6% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Jared Polis | 0.3% | — | $895K | active |
| LeBron James | 0.5% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.7% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.3% | — | $2.5M | active |
| James Talarico | 1.1% | — | $319K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.