Politics

Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.1%
No implied probability: 100.0%
Liquidity: $2.0M
24h activity: $50K
Lifetime volume: $490K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 11 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$413K	active
Jon Stewart	0.1%	-0.2pp	$331K	active
George Clooney	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
J.B. Pritzker	1.4%	+0.4pp	$330K	active
Gavin Newsom	14.3%	-0.1pp	$307K	active
Mark Kelly	3.1%	+0.1pp	$397K	active
Cory Booker	0.7%	—	$1.5M	active
Mark Cuban	0.1%	-0.3pp	$1.8M	active
Stephen A. Smith	0.1%	-0.1pp	$1.9M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.5%	—	$227K	active
Hunter Biden	0.6%	+0.05pp	$1.2M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Roy Cooper	0.1%	+0.1pp	$1.8M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	19.4%	+0.6pp	$365K	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.1%	+0.1pp	$849K	active
Kamala Harris	8.0%	+0.1pp	$364K	active
Gina Raimondo	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Rahm Emanuel	2.5%	-0.05pp	$802K	active
Jon Ossoff	16.1%	+0.3pp	$325K	active
Jared Polis	0.1%	—	$965K	active
Hillary Clinton	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
James Talarico	2.5%	—	$207K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.6%	—	$1.8M	active
Ro Khanna	1.8%	-0.1pp	$243K	active
Chelsea Clinton	0.5%	+0.05pp	$669K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.3%	—	$1.5M	active
Bernie Sanders	0.3%	—	$887K	active
Ruben Gallego	0.1%	—	$1.2M	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.3%	—	$2.5M	active
Oprah Winfrey	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
Andrew Yang	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Barack Obama	0.3%	—	$2.5M	active
Andy Beshear	2.6%	—	$566K	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Pete Buttigieg	5.7%	—	$425K	active
Josh Shapiro	6.3%	-0.05pp	$305K	active
Wes Moore	1.6%	—	$346K	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.9M	active
John Fetterman	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Phil Murphy	0.1%	—	$2.7M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Beto O’Rourke	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Chris Murphy	0.5%	—	$1.9M	active
Michelle Obama	0.3%	—	$2.2M	active
Jasmine Crockett	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
MrBeast	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Liz Cheney	0.1%	—	$2.8M	active
Graham Platner	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active

Probability sum: 93.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC