Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Limited history-0.05pp
24h activity $110KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
0%
6 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.8% | -0.05pp | $351K | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 6.5% | +0.5pp | $297K | active |
| James Talarico | 3.0% | +0.1pp | $575K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 16.6% | +1.1pp | $459K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | — | $367K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17.9% | — | $375K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Ro Khanna | 1.4% | -0.1pp | $369K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.6% | — | $1.4M | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 14.9% | +0.1pp | $343K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 7.2% | +0.6pp | $405K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.9% | +0.1pp | $888K | active |
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Jon Stewart | 1.2% | -0.05pp | $342K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $200K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 3.3% | +0.2pp | $425K | active |
| Barack Obama | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | — | $940K | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Hunter Biden | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $1.1M | active |
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.1% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.1% | — | $868K | active |
| Wes Moore | 2.0% | — | $305K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.8% | -0.05pp | $102K | active |
| Chris Murphy | 0.3% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.4% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $803K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Mark Kelly | 2.5% | — | $366K | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.3% | — | $419K | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.7% | — | $1.5M | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| MrBeast | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Roy Cooper | 0.3% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1% | — | $2.9M | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.1% | — | $981K | active |
| George Clooney | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Graham Platner | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $508K | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
Probability sum: 94.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC