Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $76KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 3% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
3%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
3%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.1pp from 3% to 3%, gradually rather than in one jump.
3%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
3%
2 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
3%
2 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
3%
2 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
3%
3 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
3%
6 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 0.7% | — | $393K | active |
| JD Vance | 20.1% | -0.6pp | $456K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.5% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.3% | -1.0pp | $391K | active |
| Wes Moore | 0.9% | -0.1pp | $251K | active |
| Stephen Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | — | $461K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Ro Khanna | 0.9% | +0.05pp | $667K | active |
| James Talarico | 1.3% | -0.1pp | $641K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.1% | — | $778K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.3% | — | $229K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $577K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.8% | — | $205K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 4.3% | -0.3pp | $322K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.8% | +0.1pp | $249K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 8.9% | -0.1pp | $268K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | — | $358K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.9% | — | $367K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 10.4% | -0.1pp | $409K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.1% | — | $370K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.8% | — | $327K | active |
| Ted Cruz | 0.6% | — | $253K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.3% | — | $265K | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Andy Beshear | 1.6% | -0.1pp | $210K | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Mark Kelly | 1.4% | — | $353K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.5% | — | $864K | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| JB Pritzker | 0.6% | — | $438K | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.3% | -0.1pp | $717K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 90.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC