Politics

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 2.5%
No implied probability: 97.5%
Liquidity: $471K
24h activity: $4K
Lifetime volume: $7.1M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 07:01 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
JB Pritzker	0.3%	—	$653K	active
Marco Rubio	12.2%	-0.9pp	$361K	active
Elon Musk	0.7%	—	$1.7M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	12.1%	-1.3pp	$424K	active
Jon Ossoff	9.8%	+0.5pp	$431K	active
JD Vance	23.1%	—	$478K	active
Ro Khanna	0.9%	—	$1.1M	active
Tucker Carlson	1.6%	+0.1pp	$388K	active
Wes Moore	0.8%	+0.1pp	$302K	active
Greg Abbott	0.8%	—	$2.3M	active
Gavin Newsom	8.2%	-0.5pp	$499K	active
Kamala Harris	3.6%	-0.1pp	$343K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.1%	—	$308K	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.4%	—	$223K	active
Pete Hegseth	0.3%	—	$2.0M	active
Jalen Brunson	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
James Talarico	0.7%	+0.1pp	$808K	active
Josh Shapiro	2.5%	—	$471K	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Ron DeSantis	1.4%	—	$354K	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Donald Trump Jr.	0.9%	—	$933K	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Stephen Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Thomas Massie	1.1%	—	$372K	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$1.5M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.5%	+0.1pp	$241K	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
Pete Buttigieg	2.5%	—	$579K	active
Eric Trump	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
Jamie Dimon	0.7%	—	$861K	active
Mark Kelly	1.1%	—	$191K	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Ivanka Trump	0.5%	-0.05pp	$501K	active
Andy Beshear	1.1%	—	$366K	active
Nikki Haley	0.6%	—	$2.2M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.5M	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Candace Owens	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Donald Trump	2.3%	+0.5pp	$541K	awaiting resolution

Probability sum: 96.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC