Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?
3%
Limited history-0.3pp
24h activity $24Closes 1 Jan 2027
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
6%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 6% to 6%, gradually rather than in one jump.
6%
27 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
6%
27 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
6%
27 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
6%
27 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
5%
1 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carvana | 3.3% | -0.3pp | $2K | active |
| Workhorse | 10.5% | +0.5pp | $485 | active |
| MicroStrategy | 3.0% | — | $18K | active |
| Perplexity AI | 2.0% | — | $2K | active |
| Lovable | 2.5% | — | $2K | active |
| Beyond Meat | 9.5% | — | $2K | active |
| OpenAI | 2.1% | — | $3K | active |
| SoundHound AI | 9.7% | -0.1pp | $3K | active |
| Anthropic | 1.9% | — | $3K | active |
| Xerox | 5.5% | — | $2K | active |
| C3.ai | 5.7% | -0.3pp | $2K | active |
| JetBlue Airways | 7.5% | +1.0pp | $529 | active |
| Lucid | 4.6% | -0.2pp | $660 | active |
| Rivian | 3.5% | +0.05pp | $518 | active |
| JC Penney | 5.5% | — | $2K | active |
| iRobot | 100.0% | +28.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC