Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
5%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $68KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
5%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
5%
24h Change
+0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $896 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy | 4.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Perplexity AI | 10.0% | — | $473 | active |
| Lovable | 5.4% | +0.05pp | $896 | active |
| Beyond Meat | 10.5% | -1.0pp | $306 | active |
| OpenAI | 2.8% | — | $2K | active |
| Carvana | 12.3% | +1.6pp | $269 | active |
| SoundHound AI | 9.5% | -0.1pp | $923 | active |
| Anthropic | 2.3% | — | $2K | active |
| JetBlue Airways | 9.0% | — | $76 | active |
| Lucid | 12.6% | +0.6pp | $241 | active |
| Xerox | 8.0% | — | $2K | active |
| C3.ai | 15.5% | — | $408 | active |
| Workhorse | 17.5% | -1.0pp | $195 | active |
| Rivian | 11.5% | — | $246 | active |
| iRobot | 100.0% | +28.9pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
5%
10%
11%
3%
12%
10%