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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
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0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hong Wang | 100.0% | +3.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Yu Deng | 100.0% | +3.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jacob Tsimerman | 100.0% | +2.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| John Pardon | 100.0% | +3.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jack Thorne | 0.1% | -3.4pp | $33K | awaiting resolution |
| Julian Sahasrabudhe | 0.1% | -1.4pp | $47K | awaiting resolution |
| Sam Raskin | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Will Sawin | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Alexander Efimov | 0.1% | -1.8pp | $37K | awaiting resolution |
| Aleksandr Logunov | 0.1% | -0.6pp | $30K | awaiting resolution |
| Vesselin Dimitrov | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.