Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
17%
Limited history+1.5pp
24h activity $569Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome, a +0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (up 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.2pp from 6% to 6%, gradually rather than in one jump.
6%
27 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
6%
27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
6%
27 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
6%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
6%
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GitLab | 6.0% | +0.1pp | $2K | active |
| PayPal | 16.5% | +1.5pp | $1K | active |
| OpenAI | 1.9% | — | $31K | active |
| Anthropic | 2.0% | -0.05pp | $23K | active |
| Nebius Group | 2.5% | +0.2pp | $13K | active |
| MGM Resorts | 5.5% | -1.0pp | $3K | active |
| Lovable | 3.4% | +0.1pp | $5K | active |
| Perplexity AI | 5.5% | — | $5K | active |
| BP | 3.2% | — | $20K | active |
| Ubisoft | 2.6% | +0.05pp | $4K | active |
| Snapchat | 6.3% | +0.1pp | $4K | active |
| Viking Therapeutics | 13.5% | — | $2K | active |
| Zoom Video Communications | 6.0% | — | $6K | active |
| Brown-Forman | 7.5% | — | $3K | active |
| Warner Bros. Discovery | 100.0% | +5.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Pizza Hut | 100.0% | +4.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cursor | 100.0% | +11.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| Caesars Entertainment | 100.0% | +43.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| iRobot | 100.0% | +73.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC