Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?
2%
Limited history-3.4pp
24h activity $247KCloses 13 Sept 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (down 0.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
-0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | 2.4% | -3.4pp | $61K | active |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 58.0% | +8.0pp | $52K | active |
| Luciano Darderi | 0.3% | -0.5pp | $54K | active |
| Learner Tien | 3.5% | +0.1pp | $57K | active |
| Alexander Zverev | 22.3% | -0.3pp | $60K | active |
| Alexander Blockx | 1.3% | -0.3pp | $55K | active |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0.8% | -0.5pp | $104K | active |
| Karen Khachanov | 0.9% | +0.2pp | $81K | active |
| Frances Tiafoe | 4.5% | +2.5pp | $54K | active |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.7% | -0.3pp | $99K | active |
| Ben Shelton | 6.0% | -2.0pp | $73K | active |
| Alex Michelsen | 1.8% | +0.9pp | $107K | active |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0.1% | -0.5pp | $95K | active |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Tommy Paul | 0.1% | -1.1pp | $107K | awaiting resolution |
| Jakub Mensik | 0.0% | -2.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Zizou Bergs | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Novak Djokovic | 0.0% | -9.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 0.0% | -3.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Taylor Fritz | 0.0% | -10.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Arthur Fils | 0.0% | -7.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 0.0% | -1.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0.0% | -1.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Joao Fonseca | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jannik Sinner | 0.0% | -35.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Andrey Rublev | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Alexander Bublik | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jack Draper | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Brandon Nakashima | 0.0% | -2.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| Alex de Minaur | 0.0% | -1.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Rafael Jodar | 0.0% | -5.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Holger Rune | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Mariano Navone | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ignacio Buse | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jaume Munar | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Casper Ruud | 0.1% | — | $279K | awaiting resolution |
| Gael Monfils | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ugo Humbert | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Sebastian Baez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Nuno Borges | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 102.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
2%
58%
0%
4%
22%
1%