Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?
6%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $108KCloses 13 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
15%Recent probability movement (up 2.8pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
15%
24h Change
+2.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.8pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | 6.5% | +0.3pp | $64K | active |
| Joao Fonseca | 1.3% | +0.3pp | $70K | active |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0.5% | +0.2pp | $67K | active |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1.1% | +0.6pp | $50K | active |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 11.5% | -1.0pp | $87K | active |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 1.8% | +0.1pp | $63K | active |
| Arthur Fils | 2.0% | +0.8pp | $50K | active |
| Daniil Medvedev | 2.9% | +0.7pp | $72K | active |
| Jakub Mensik | 1.6% | +0.3pp | $63K | active |
| Jannik Sinner | 42.5% | -8.0pp | $88K | active |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $57K | active |
| Andrey Rublev | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $77K | active |
| Jack Draper | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $60K | active |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $60K | active |
| Alexander Zverev | 14.7% | +2.8pp | $42K | active |
| Taylor Fritz | 4.2% | +1.0pp | $53K | active |
| Flavio Cobolli | 0.6% | +0.05pp | $100K | active |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0.6% | +0.1pp | $64K | active |
| Ben Shelton | 5.3% | -0.5pp | $56K | active |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $48K | active |
| Holger Rune | 0.1% | — | $37K | active |
| Alexander Bublik | 0.6% | — | $50K | active |
Probability sum: 99.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
6%
1%
0%
1%
12%
2%