Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Brandon Nakashima win the 2026 Men's US Open?
2%
Limited history
24h activity $161KCloses 13 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
16
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | 2.3% | — | $81K | active |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 33.5% | +3.5pp | $96K | active |
| Alexander Blockx | 0.3% | — | $98K | active |
| Learner Tien | 0.8% | — | $57K | active |
| Alex de Minaur | 0.9% | — | $97K | active |
| Karen Khachanov | 0.1% | — | $77K | active |
| Frances Tiafoe | 1.6% | -1.2pp | $46K | active |
| Tommy Paul | 0.8% | — | $69K | active |
| Rafael Jodar | 4.9% | — | $53K | active |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.5% | — | $135K | active |
| Alexander Zverev | 23.3% | +1.1pp | $46K | active |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 0.1% | — | $37K | active |
| Alex Michelsen | 0.1% | — | $81K | active |
| Arthur Rinderknech | 0.1% | — | $22K | active |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3.3% | -0.8pp | $49K | active |
| Valentin Vacherot | 0.1% | — | $46K | active |
| Jaume Munar | 0.1% | — | $55K | active |
| Ben Shelton | 7.9% | +0.6pp | $48K | active |
| Ignacio Buse | 0.1% | — | $83K | active |
| Andrey Rublev | 0.5% | -0.3pp | $56K | active |
| Flavio Cobolli | 1.9% | -0.4pp | $43K | active |
| Luciano Darderi | 0.1% | — | $65K | active |
| Taylor Fritz | 7.3% | -0.6pp | $44K | active |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $71K | active |
| Jiri Lehecka | 0.8% | -0.05pp | $47K | active |
| Felix Auger Aliassime | 3.4% | -0.9pp | $41K | active |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | 0.1% | — | $85K | active |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1.3% | — | $52K | active |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0.1% | — | $131K | active |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $67K | active |
| Zizou Bergs | 0.1% | — | $96K | active |
| Jakub Mensik | 1.9% | -0.9pp | $49K | active |
| Alexander Bublik | 0.8% | +0.05pp | $65K | active |
| Mariano Navone | 0.1% | — | $62K | active |
| Gael Monfils | 0.1% | — | $199K | active |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0.1% | — | $94K | active |
| Arthur Fils | 0.0% | -7.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Casper Ruud | 0.1% | — | $199K | awaiting resolution |
| Ugo Humbert | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Novak Djokovic | 0.0% | -9.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Joao Fonseca | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jannik Sinner | 0.0% | -35.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Jack Draper | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Holger Rune | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Sebastian Baez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Nuno Borges | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
2%
34%
1%
1%
0%
2%