Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
97%
Limited history+0.6pp
24h activity $1KCloses 4 Oct 2026
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Current implied probability
90%Recent probability movement (up 2.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
90%
24h Change
+2.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 89.5% | +2.5pp | $22K | active |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 96.7% | +0.6pp | $58K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.8% | +0.5pp | $21K | active |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.7% | +0.05pp | $17K | active |
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 0.8% | -0.1pp | $22K | active |
| Romeu Zema | 2.4% | -0.05pp | $15K | active |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 1.4% | -0.05pp | $19K | active |
| Renan Santos | 7.0% | — | $40K | active |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 1.4% | — | $15K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
97%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%