Sport

Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.1%
No implied probability: 99.8%
Liquidity: $529K
24h activity: $4K
Lifetime volume: $820K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 18 Aug 2026, 07:53 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Harry Kane	62.1%	+1.6pp	$191K	active
Jude Bellingham	0.1%	—	$386K	active
Ousmane Dembélé	1.6%	-0.2pp	$223K	active
Rodri	9.5%	+1.0pp	$105K	active
Lamine Yamal	15.1%	-0.3pp	$145K	active
Fabian Ruiz	1.1%	+0.3pp	$78K	active
Kylian Mbappé	7.3%	-0.6pp	$150K	active
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	3.1%	-1.1pp	$137K	active
Lionel Messi	1.8%	-0.1pp	$231K	active
Desire Doue	0.1%	—	$721K	active
Vitinha	0.1%	—	$715K	active
Erling Haaland	0.3%	—	$331K	active
Michael Olise	0.3%	—	$370K	active
Pau Cubarsi	0.1%	—	$144K	active
Declan Rice	0.1%	—	$529K	active
Vinícius Júnior	0.1%	—	$736K	active
Mohamed Salah	0.1%	—	$739K	active
Pedri	0.1%	—	$660K	active
Achraf Hakimi	0.1%	—	$706K	active
Julian Alvarez	0.1%	—	$694K	active
Bruno Fernandes	0.1%	—	$675K	active
Raphinha	0.1%	—	$706K	active
Cole Palmer	0.1%	—	$736K	active
Lautaro Martinez	0.1%	—	$719K	active
Cristiano Ronaldo	0.1%	—	$696K	active
Federico Valverde	0.1%	—	$722K	active
Luis Diaz	0.1%	—	$689K	active
Dominik Szoboszlai	0.1%	—	$622K	active
Bukayo Saka	0.1%	—	$569K	active
Rodrygo	0.1%	—	$502K	active
Enzo Fernandez	0.1%	—	$519K	active

Probability sum: 103.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC