Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
Limited history-0.5pp
24h activity $24KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
6 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
0%
6 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
0%
6 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC
0%
6 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
0%
7 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
0%
10 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.1% | — | $665K | active |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | -0.5pp | $1.1M | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $1.0M | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 15.4% | — | $458K | active |
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Kamala Harris | 6.5% | -0.6pp | $309K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.5% | -0.2pp | $302K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.0% | -0.1pp | $364K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 1.8% | -0.4pp | $151K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.9% | -0.4pp | $720K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 15.1% | — | $367K | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1% | — | $2.9M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17.9% | — | $372K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 2.4% | -0.2pp | $342K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 2.6% | — | $450K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Ro Khanna | 1.1% | -0.1pp | $381K | active |
| Wes Moore | 2.0% | — | $317K | active |
| George Clooney | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.3% | — | $429K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Barack Obama | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $513K | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $797K | active |
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | — | $937K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 0.3% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.7% | — | $335K | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.7% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.7% | -0.05pp | $223K | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.0% | — | $862K | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.3% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.8% | — | $892K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $1.8M | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Jon Stewart | 1.1% | — | $357K | active |
| Roy Cooper | 0.3% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Chris Murphy | 0.3% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| MrBeast | 0.1% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Graham Platner | 0.1% | — | $2.5M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
Probability sum: 90.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC