Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 100% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Last recorded probability
100%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.5pp from 99% to 100%, gradually rather than in one jump.
99%
19 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
99%
19 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
99%
19 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
99%
19 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
100%
21 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
100%
23 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 23:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $47K | awaiting resolution |
| October 31 | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $30K | awaiting resolution |
| September 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 10 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 9 | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.