Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $1KCloses 4 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 0.1pp from 0% to 0%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
0%
15 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
0%
15 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
0%
15 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
0%
15 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
0%
19 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
0%
19 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Santos Victory | 0.1% | — | $36K | active |
| Other | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $33K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% | 8.6% | +3.3pp | $16K | active |
| Lula da Silva 5-10% | 12.0% | +0.5pp | $34K | active |
| Lula da Silva 10-15% | 3.2% | -4.7pp | $48K | active |
| Lula da Silva <5% | 46.5% | +3.0pp | $41K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro <5% | 35.1% | +10.9pp | $21K | active |
| Ratinho Júnior Victory | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $35K | active |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ | 2.3% | +1.6pp | $45K | active |
| Tarcisio de Freitas Victory | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $37K | active |
| Lula da Silva 15%+ | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $33K | active |
Probability sum: 108.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC