Politics

Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.1%
No implied probability: 100.0%
Liquidity: $1.4M
Lifetime volume: $632K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 16 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC

Verify on Polymarket

Investigate pack

Everything you need before opening Polymarket

Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.

Verify on Polymarket ↗

Back to markets

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Gavin Newsom	8.2%	+0.5pp	$378K	active
JD Vance	23.1%	-0.5pp	$476K	active
Marco Rubio	11.1%	-0.4pp	$262K	active
Jamie Dimon	0.5%	—	$793K	active
Elon Musk	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Ron DeSantis	1.9%	—	$232K	active
Kamala Harris	4.3%	-0.1pp	$325K	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	13.3%	—	$345K	active
Stephen Smith	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Josh Shapiro	3.5%	—	$332K	active
James Talarico	0.8%	—	$750K	active
Jon Ossoff	11.6%	—	$324K	active
Andy Beshear	1.1%	—	$340K	active
Donald Trump Jr.	0.5%	—	$949K	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Greg Abbott	0.8%	—	$2.2M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.1M	active
Nikki Haley	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Pete Buttigieg	2.5%	-0.1pp	$528K	active
Ivanka Trump	0.5%	—	$457K	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.3%	—	$243K	active
Michelle Obama	0.1%	—	$1.1M	active
Tucker Carlson	1.4%	—	$340K	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.3%	—	$1.2M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.4%	—	$159K	active
Ro Khanna	0.8%	—	$1.0M	active
JB Pritzker	0.3%	—	$535K	active
Wes Moore	0.8%	—	$234K	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Raphael Warnock	0.1%	—	$258K	active
Eric Trump	0.1%	—	$2.3M	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Pete Hegseth	0.1%	—	$1.3M	active
Thomas Massie	0.8%	—	$330K	active
Jalen Brunson	0.1%	—	$2.2M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Mark Kelly	1.8%	—	$244K	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$1.4M	active
Candace Owens	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Donald Trump	1.8%	+0.05pp	$614K	awaiting resolution

Probability sum: 95.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC