Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
4%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $62KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 18% probability for this outcome, a +2.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
18%Probability is barely changed (up 2.5pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
18%
24h Change
+2.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 3.0pp, from 15% to 18%, between 22:00 and 23:00 UTC.
14%
8 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
14%
8 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
14%
8 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
14%
8 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
18%
9 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
18%
12 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 2.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 4.1% | +0.3pp | $101K | active |
| December 31 | 17.5% | +2.5pp | $93K | active |
| November 30 | 10.5% | +2.5pp | $50K | active |
| January 31, 2027 | 23.5% | +2.0pp | $71K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 33.5% | — | $64K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 71.0% | — | $164K | active |
| May 31, 2027 | 48.0% | +0.5pp | $84K | active |
| February 28, 2027 | 27.5% | +2.0pp | $44K | active |
| July 31, 2027 | 54.0% | +1.0pp | $71K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 50.5% | +1.0pp | $103K | active |
| November 30, 2027 | 68.0% | +1.0pp | $98K | active |
| August 31, 2027 | 58.0% | +1.0pp | $68K | active |
| September 30, 2027 | 61.5% | +0.5pp | $85K | active |
| October 31, 2027 | 65.0% | +1.5pp | $97K | active |
| April 30, 2027 | 39.5% | +1.0pp | $52K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC