Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Kash Patel out by December 31?
18%
Limited history
24h activity $24Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome, a -12.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%Recent probability movement (down 12.0pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
5%
24h Change
-12.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
27
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 24.0pp from 29% to 5%, gradually rather than in one jump.
29%
1 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
23%
1 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
17%
1 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
6%
1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
5%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 12.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 4.5% | -12.0pp | $13K | active |
| December 31 | 18.0% | — | $16K | active |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -1.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | +0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of time between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC